Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
