Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
